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Political betting markets are getting cold feet when it comes to committing money to Kamala Harris's chance of success in November.
The newest method of electoral forecasting is once again warming up to former President Donald Trump, according to polls showing he has surpassed his Democratic opponent among bettors. As of Monday morning, the Republican draws 51.6% of bets versus 47.5% for Harris. The change is notable given Harris led Trump by as much as 3% for most of September. Bettors on Polymarket have staked nearly $1.4 billion on the outcome of the November 5th election.
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By volume, Trump draws nearly $335 million in bets predicting he will be victorious while Harris is staked with $266 million in bets. Winners will collect their pots after the race is called by three sources: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. In the meantime, pro-Harris and pro-Trump players will continue duking it out in Polymarket's commentary section where each side slings barbs at the other or defends their bets.
"Truth Social up 15% today. Patriots in control," wrote one Trump supporter. User Belgamus, who is predicting a Harris victory, encouraged his fellow Democrats to look to recent history for their predictions. "In the 2012 prediction markets, Romney was favored over Obama. Romney campaign didn't make it to 11 PM on election night," they wrote.
Traditional polling puts the two contenders in a dogfight. Most recently, viewers of last week's vice presidential debate gave J.D. Vance (R-OH) the edge over Tim Walz, but it remains to be seen whether that will translate into long-term polling success for President Trump and his running mate. The Harris camp faced a fresh wave of anxiety after a poll by the Arab American Institute (AAI) showed the vice president and Trump deadlocked among Arab-American voters. In Michigan, home to the nation's only Arab-majority area of the country, many progressive Arab-Americans are promising to blank the ballot rather than vote for Harris over her refusal to pull funding from Israel or accuse the Jewish nation of committing genocide.
Polling in Michigan and other swing states appears to give a slim lead to Trump. A survey released by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage gave the former president a margin of +1 to +2.2% in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada while he and Vice President Harris remained tied in Georgia. In North Carolina, where hundreds of residents are still being rescued following last week's devastating hurricane, Republicans are closely tracking reports that hundreds or thousands of ballots have since gone missing. The swing state was narrowly carried by President Trump in 2020.
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